Closing line value: the metric that predicts long-run results better than win rate

If you consistently beat the closing line, you probably have real edge. If you consistently lose to it, you probably do not.

Closing line value (CLV) measures how your bet price compares to the final market price just before the game starts. If you bet a team at −3 and the line closes at −4.5, you beat the closing line. The market moved in your direction -- whatever information you were acting on, the broader market agreed by the time it closed.